Casino Bonus Value Calculator — See What Your Bonus Is Really Worth
The same $100 bonus can put $74 in your pocket or cost you $50 of your own deposit. Here's how to know which before you play.
Quick story before we get into it.
A few weeks ago I needed to calculate the expected value of a few hundred bonus offers. My usual tool handled one at a time. My developer friend was on vacation. And I genuinely cannot code. So I did what any reasonable person would do — started grinding through them one by one.
Just kidding. I vibe-coded the whole thing. I’d already played around with Lovable, Replit, Vessel, Bolt and a few others, so I knew it was doable. Went with Replit. First working prototype on the first prompt. Spent the rest of the time tweaking the UI and adding features. Cost less than dinner. Works better than what I had before.
Deposit. Bet. Volatility.
The wager requirement, max bet rules, time limit, win cap — those are the casino’s terms. Not negotiable.
What you control: your deposit size, your bet size, and which slot you play. Those three decisions determine whether a bonus makes you money or quietly eats into your deposit.
You probably recognize the guy in the banner. And honestly, everything about this offer is as good as he looks — massive bonus, 15x wager, no bet or win limits that I could find. Run the numbers and you’re sitting on $471in expected value with a 97% clear rate.
Want more? Go high-volatility and that EV climbs to $718 — clear rate drops to 21%, but wins when it hits go above $8,0001.
America is truly the land of opportunity. AP players in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and beyond — seriously, what are you waiting for?
With offers like this, it's genuinely hard to lose money. And here's the thing — anyone willing to put in the work can stack 10 offers like this and walk away with $4–5k in value with minimal risk. That's just matched betting, which has been written about extensively. Gina Fiore over at Advantage Play has a great post on it here. What do you think about it — let me know in the comments.
The typical offshore offer.
Bonuses can look even more attractive on paper — bigger numbers, flashier copy. But the wager is higher, and fine print has a funny way of appearing just slightly more often than never. A 50x wager, $5 max bet, maybe a win cap thrown in. Suddenly the slot you pick and the stake you play can flip the same bonus from profitable to a quiet drain on your deposit.
A win cap, by the way, is when your bonus winnings are capped at a fixed amount or a multiplier — say 5x the bonus. So a $100 bonus with a 5x cap means you walk away with $500 max, no matter what the reels say.
Free spins follow the same logic. 100 spins at $1, 50x wager, $100 win cap? That’s about $3 in expected value and a clear rate in the low single digits. Looks generous. In reality you're looking at $3 EV and a 3% ROI with a lot of variance attached.
How the Calculator Works
Pick your bonus type — deposit bonus or free spins. Then choose one of three slots, each with a different volatility level but nearly identical RTP (~96.48%):
Chicken Chase — Volatility 4.2
The Dog House — Volatility 13.0
Fruit Party — Volatility 23.2
The underlying data comes from real demo session recordings for each slot. RTP was slightly adjusted to make all three identical — that's the one part I didn't vibe-code. The data was already sitting on my hard drive.
Same RTP, very different behavior. That’s intentional — it isolates exactly what volatility does to your EV and clear rate.
Enter your deposit, bonus amount, and bet size. Optionally add a win cap and set the number of simulations — or check the auto-calibrate box to keep the margin of error under 2%. Hit calculate.
You get:
Expected value across repeated runs (Monte Carlo method)
Probability of clearing the wager requirement
Probability of busting out
Average win when the bonus clears
Standard deviation, 95% confidence intervals, and win distribution on successful runs
You can also paste a batch of bonuses from a CSV or copy straight from Google Sheets to run them all at once.
What You Can Actually Use This For
Tell instantly whether an offer is positive or negative EV
Compare bonuses across different casinos side by side
Find the deposit, bet size, and volatility combination that maximizes either your EV or your clear rate — depending on what you’re optimizing for
Set simulations to 1 if you only have one shot at an offer. Set it to 10 if you’re planning to take the same deal repeatedly
Do your own research — find the exact wager level where EV hits zero for a given bet size and slot
One spoiler: for a $100 bonus at just a $1 bet, EV doesn’t reach zero until around a 647x wager. Just sit with that number for a second.
Works Wherever Bonuses Exist
Which is basically everywhere — regulated markets, offshore, all of it.
Everything runs locally in your browser. Your data stays on your machine. Free, no account required.
Ready to run your own numbers?
Feedback welcome in the comments. Happy to get into the math with anyone who wants to dig deeper.
That last number didn't make it into the screenshot — try it yourself.