I got into a mildly heated discussion with a friend of mine on this once. He falls squarely in MAX EV ALL THE TIME camp which I think is fine with infinite opportunities and unlimited bankroll. In the specific example though, we were talking about coaching civilians with limited/ no bankroll. I like to lay out the possible outcomes and make a decision that feels best for the situation. For example, assuming 100% lossback on European roulette (37 numbers), a $1,000 lossback, and stopping as soon as your number hits:
I think even for an AP with a large bankroll has to consider the utility of potential money won on opportunity cost. Great article, well said. Just like the old proverb, “Sometimes a bird in hand is lower EV but maybe better so you can bet the bird again on something else sooner”
In the specific case with my friend, the person he was advising (his pops) bet 1k on a single number on a non-qualifying game (live dealer) and smashed for 35k. Clearly I've got a lot to learn!
Haha, I've had the exact same debates with a friend and partner of mine who was always in the max-bet camp, and one time we actually put 2k on a single number. You really have to dig around to find somewhere online that'll even take a bet that size.
My line was always "let's run some sims first and make sure this won't wreck our bankroll." His answer was that the promo only comes around once a week, and we've got other EV sources with lower variance anyway.
Honestly, it's a huge topic and there's no way to fit it all into one post. To be fair, that post wasn't meant as a how-to, more of a rundown of the promos that are out there.
Oh, and the 2k bet didn't hit, and a week later the promo was gone.
I agree with wanting to get more bonuses, so having a high chance of busting your account is a good move. Unfortunately a lot of these type of bonuses available in the US at least are one time only.
Your live baccarat example is not a fair comparison. Obviously a better lossback method would be $1000 vs. $825, on a player win we continue to $2000 vs. $1700, and then finally $4000 vs. $3600 to guarantee $800+ no matter what for just one lossback promo.
Yes, agreed, I already replied to you on X too. The EV is higher this way, but you also need more money, so the ROI is lower. And it's still betting on opposite outcomes, which the provider can notice.
I got into a mildly heated discussion with a friend of mine on this once. He falls squarely in MAX EV ALL THE TIME camp which I think is fine with infinite opportunities and unlimited bankroll. In the specific example though, we were talking about coaching civilians with limited/ no bankroll. I like to lay out the possible outcomes and make a decision that feels best for the situation. For example, assuming 100% lossback on European roulette (37 numbers), a $1,000 lossback, and stopping as soon as your number hits:
1 spin × $1,000: 2.70% chance of winning, $35,000 profit, +$935 EV.
2 spins × $500: 5.33% chance, $17,000–$17,500 profit, +$909 EV.
4 spins × $250: 10.38% chance, $8,000–$8,750 profit, +$860 EV.
5 spins × $200: 12.80% chance, $6,200–$7,000 profit, +$836 EV.
10 spins × $100: 23.97% chance, $2,600–$3,500 profit, +$727 EV.
I think even for an AP with a large bankroll has to consider the utility of potential money won on opportunity cost. Great article, well said. Just like the old proverb, “Sometimes a bird in hand is lower EV but maybe better so you can bet the bird again on something else sooner”
In the specific case with my friend, the person he was advising (his pops) bet 1k on a single number on a non-qualifying game (live dealer) and smashed for 35k. Clearly I've got a lot to learn!
Haha, I've had the exact same debates with a friend and partner of mine who was always in the max-bet camp, and one time we actually put 2k on a single number. You really have to dig around to find somewhere online that'll even take a bet that size.
My line was always "let's run some sims first and make sure this won't wreck our bankroll." His answer was that the promo only comes around once a week, and we've got other EV sources with lower variance anyway.
Honestly, it's a huge topic and there's no way to fit it all into one post. To be fair, that post wasn't meant as a how-to, more of a rundown of the promos that are out there.
Oh, and the 2k bet didn't hit, and a week later the promo was gone.
Agreed! Check out my stack about life in the casino 🎰 https://casinoconfessions.substack.com/p/welcome-to-casino-confessions-everyone?r=9cox3b&utm_medium=ios
I agree with wanting to get more bonuses, so having a high chance of busting your account is a good move. Unfortunately a lot of these type of bonuses available in the US at least are one time only.
In my experience, some casinos keep giving bonuses after the welcome one. They're usually worse, of course, but still profitable.
Another method implied by the Twitter post would certainly include storing value in slots to be reclaimed later (with real cash)
By the way, that's already banned in a lot of places and actively shut down :)
Your live baccarat example is not a fair comparison. Obviously a better lossback method would be $1000 vs. $825, on a player win we continue to $2000 vs. $1700, and then finally $4000 vs. $3600 to guarantee $800+ no matter what for just one lossback promo.
Yes, agreed, I already replied to you on X too. The EV is higher this way, but you also need more money, so the ROI is lower. And it's still betting on opposite outcomes, which the provider can notice.