Unlocking the True Value of Deposit Bonuses
A deep dive into bonus expected value — and how bet limits and wagering rules shape your real returns.
Who This Analysis Is For
Online casino players who take deposit bonuses
Advantage players looking to maximize their edge
Casino employees who create and optimize promotional offers
Anyone interested in the mathematics behind gambling
Readers of my previous articles on casino advantage play
Introduction
You've probably seen them — flashy deposit bonus offers from online casinos. "100% MATCH ON YOUR FIRST DEPOSIT!" But here's the real question:
What's the actual value of that bonus? Do they have a positive expected value (EV) — meaning they'll make you money in the long run? And if so — how much?
Most players (and even gambling experts) get this completely wrong. They use simplistic formulas that ignore the most critical factor: variance.
In poker, every decision has EV — either positive or negative. And if you want long-term results, your goal is simple: Make more +EV decisions, and avoid the -EV ones. Over time, this mindset spills into everyday life. Choosing a healthy meal? Probably +EV. Skipping sleep to chase one more spin? Probably -EV.
The Simulation Approach
Let's calculate the EV of a deposit bonus using one of my favorite slots — The Dog House by Pragmatic Play.
To do this, we'll collect several million spins from the game's demo version. Instead of calculating theoretical win probabilities, we'll simulate each spin by randomly drawing outcomes from this dataset.
We'll simulate as many bonus playthroughs as possible and calculate three key metrics:
EV (expected value)
Clear Rate (how often the bonus is successfully completed)
Average win (the average amount won among the bonuses that were successfully cleared)
Let's test it on a popular bonus offer: $100 bonus with a $100 deposit. Wagering requirement: 40x bonus. Bet size: $5. Slot: The Dog House
Results That Will Surprise You
Simulation Highlights:
Simulations: 1,000,000
Slot variance: 164
Expected Value (EV): +$69.9
Probability of completing wagering: 8% (1 in 12)
Average win when successful: $2,244
Here's how the winnings are distributed:
Key Insight: We'll successfully clear the bonus in only 8% of cases, but when we do, the average win is a whopping $2,244. The expected value (EV) of a single bonus playthrough is +$70.
Now, let's examine the key factors that influence bonus EV.
Impact of Bet Size on EV
Many casinos impose a maximum bet cap during wagering — often €5. Our analysis shows this restriction slightly reduces EV, but not significantly.
Key findings:
Reducing the maximum bet size from $75 to $5 (a 15x decrease) only reduces EV by 24%
Even at $0,4 bets, the bonus maintains positive EV
For players, the practical difference is minimal
Bottom line: Don't worry too much about bet size restrictions as long as you can bet at least $0,4.
Impact of Wagering Requirements on EV
Now let's look at how wagering requirements affect your bonus value. As wagering requirements increase, EV gradually drops — but not as dramatically as you might expect.
Key findings:
The higher the wagering requirement, the lower the EV — but the decline is gradual
EV stays positive for a surprisingly long time — only after wagering requirements reach around 500x does EV finally drop to zero
Most casino bonuses (30x-50x) remain solidly +EV
For better visualization, I've also added a second graph showing how wagering impacts both the average win size and the chance of successfully completing the bonus (clear rate).
What this means: As wagering requirements increase, two things happen simultaneously:
Your chance of successfully completing the bonus drops
The average win size when you do succeed increases significantly
In other words: Wins become rarer — but much bigger.
Impact of Maximum Win Limits on EV
Now that we understand wagering requirements, let's examine another common restriction casinos implement: maximum win limits. While wagering affects your chances incrementally, win caps create a hard ceiling on your potential profits.
Hard caps on maximum winnings seriously limit your upside.
Key findings:
Without any win limit, the EV is around $70
With a $10,000 limit (100x the bonus), the EV is $69 — practically no difference (only 1.4% decrease)
A $3,000 limit (30x the bonus) cuts the EV in half
Any limit below $2,000 (20x the bonus) makes the bonus negative EV
Bottom line: Avoid bonuses with low maximum win limits. They're the most destructive restriction casinos impose.
Impact of Slot Variance on EV
What is Variance (Volatility) in Simple Terms?
Think of variance like weather patterns:
Low variance slots (Starburst) are like steady drizzle — lots of small wins, few big payouts
High variance slots (The Dog House) are like long dry spells punctuated by occasional thunderstorms — rare but massive payouts
For bonus clearing, "thunderstorms" are your friend. Why? Because wagering requirements create a finish line. With high variance, you might hit a big win early, shoot past the finish line, and cash out before the house edge catches up to you.
Let's compare:
The Dog House (variance: 169)
Starburst (variance: 18)
Insight: Even low-volatility slots like Starburst can generate a positive EV — if you play with larger bets. However, higher-variance slots provide much stronger upside at all bet levels.
To isolate this effect, I ran a controlled simulation across multiple variance levels — while keeping RTP constant. For clarity, we'll use a bonus with 30x wagering (on deposit + bonus) and a $1 bet size.
The verdict is clear: Slot variance has a major influence on both the expected value (EV) and the probability of successfully completing the wagering (Clear Rate).
High variance means high rewards — but also high risk — and this effect is especially noticeable at lower bet sizes.
Key Takeaways
After millions of simulations, we've discovered:
RTP-based formulas are deeply flawed — they miss the critical impact of variance
Many deposit bonuses are actually +EV — when played correctly
High-variance slots significantly outperform low-variance options for bonus clearing
Win caps are the most destructive limitation — more so than wagering requirements
Bet size restrictions have surprisingly little impact on your expected value
Practical Recommendations
Based on our simulations, here's how to maximize bonus value:
Select the highest variance slots available for bonus play
If possible, use the maximum allowed bet size
Prioritize bonuses without maximum win caps
Don't be discouraged by wagering requirements under 50x
Remember: You'll lose most of the time, but win big occasionally
Your Experience?
Have you ever calculated the EV of your bonuses, or do you just go by feel? Which factors surprised you the most in this analysis?
Share your bonus stories in the comments — both wins and losses! I respond to every comment.
This is great, thank you. Can you explain how you calculate the number you are using for variance? I.e. The Dog House (variance: 169), Starburst (variance: 18). Where do you collect these numbers from? Similarly, with RTP, can you share what your sources are? Are these publicly available?
“What an insightful perspective on this topic—it’s something I had no idea about!”