This is great, thank you. Can you explain how you calculate the number you are using for variance? I.e. The Dog House (variance: 169), Starburst (variance: 18). Where do you collect these numbers from? Similarly, with RTP, can you share what your sources are? Are these publicly available?
Thank you, the variance is calculated independently based on demo game data, unfortunately this data is practically not available in the public domain. I wrote a bit about this here https://www.casinoshatewinners.com/p/what-casinos-hide-part-2-volatility. Finding out RTP is not much trouble.
Yes, I've read most of, if not all, of the free articles you have here. (Promise that I'm looking into signing up for your paid version, but I'm just a rookie at gambling.) I see that you mention somewhere that you got the licenses to set up your own casino just to run simulations? Is that how you were able to do the demo numbers?
FWIW, I'd love to see a breakdown of what a variance number of 18 or 169 really means. Is it just based on standard deviation?
Also, in my limited experience of online slots, I've always thought it made far more sense to stick with "No Rules" bonuses , with no playthrough and no max cashout. To me, these almost seem too good to be true, so I'd love to see an article with your take on them.
Glad you liked it. I got those numbers simply by using demo mode. It’s not hard to replicate if you know how to code, though I personally don’t.
The values like 18 or 169 refer to variance, which is the expected value of the squared deviation from the mean. In other words, it measures how much the outcomes can fluctuate.
In my volatility article, I used standard deviation instead — it’s easier to grasp. For example, in European roulette, if you bet on a single number, the variance is 34.08, and the standard deviation is about 5.84. That gives you a sense of how much swing to expect even in a simple game.
As for bonuses, the best ones are usually no-deposit offers or deposit bonuses that aren’t sticky. But really, you can play any bonus as long as the expected value is positive.
Thanks for taking the time to write this all out. I'm certainly not a mathematician but my "math & science high school" taught me enough to understand basic statistics.
I think I am finding out that once you start winning with these bonuses, they start disappearing. I was wondering how they were making money giving out 40%/50% and higher "no-rules" bonuses. Obviously no-deposit is pretty great but these are almost always limited to like $50 in winnings (not that I'm complaining).
Was really curious to find out that you have an expected EV for bonuses with such high playthrough requirements. I never would have thought that possible with numbers like 50x. Anyway, hope you keep writing, as I will be following!
It’s just classic marketing. First they give you a 100% bonus, then 50%, and before you know it you’re depositing without any bonus at all. For every player who clears bonuses with positive EV and walks away unless the terms are right, there are thousands who play just for fun.
Edward Thorp explained how to count cards decades ago, but most players still don’t know basic strategy.
This is great, thank you. Can you explain how you calculate the number you are using for variance? I.e. The Dog House (variance: 169), Starburst (variance: 18). Where do you collect these numbers from? Similarly, with RTP, can you share what your sources are? Are these publicly available?
Thank you, the variance is calculated independently based on demo game data, unfortunately this data is practically not available in the public domain. I wrote a bit about this here https://www.casinoshatewinners.com/p/what-casinos-hide-part-2-volatility. Finding out RTP is not much trouble.
Yes, I've read most of, if not all, of the free articles you have here. (Promise that I'm looking into signing up for your paid version, but I'm just a rookie at gambling.) I see that you mention somewhere that you got the licenses to set up your own casino just to run simulations? Is that how you were able to do the demo numbers?
FWIW, I'd love to see a breakdown of what a variance number of 18 or 169 really means. Is it just based on standard deviation?
Also, in my limited experience of online slots, I've always thought it made far more sense to stick with "No Rules" bonuses , with no playthrough and no max cashout. To me, these almost seem too good to be true, so I'd love to see an article with your take on them.
Thank you and keep on doing it!
Glad you liked it. I got those numbers simply by using demo mode. It’s not hard to replicate if you know how to code, though I personally don’t.
The values like 18 or 169 refer to variance, which is the expected value of the squared deviation from the mean. In other words, it measures how much the outcomes can fluctuate.
In my volatility article, I used standard deviation instead — it’s easier to grasp. For example, in European roulette, if you bet on a single number, the variance is 34.08, and the standard deviation is about 5.84. That gives you a sense of how much swing to expect even in a simple game.
As for bonuses, the best ones are usually no-deposit offers or deposit bonuses that aren’t sticky. But really, you can play any bonus as long as the expected value is positive.
Thanks for taking the time to write this all out. I'm certainly not a mathematician but my "math & science high school" taught me enough to understand basic statistics.
I think I am finding out that once you start winning with these bonuses, they start disappearing. I was wondering how they were making money giving out 40%/50% and higher "no-rules" bonuses. Obviously no-deposit is pretty great but these are almost always limited to like $50 in winnings (not that I'm complaining).
Was really curious to find out that you have an expected EV for bonuses with such high playthrough requirements. I never would have thought that possible with numbers like 50x. Anyway, hope you keep writing, as I will be following!
It’s just classic marketing. First they give you a 100% bonus, then 50%, and before you know it you’re depositing without any bonus at all. For every player who clears bonuses with positive EV and walks away unless the terms are right, there are thousands who play just for fun.
Edward Thorp explained how to count cards decades ago, but most players still don’t know basic strategy.
Appreciate the feedback!
“What an insightful perspective on this topic—it’s something I had no idea about!”
Glad you found it useful. Feel free to ask anything