This is great, thank you. Can you explain how you calculate the number you are using for variance? I.e. The Dog House (variance: 169), Starburst (variance: 18). Where do you collect these numbers from? Similarly, with RTP, can you share what your sources are? Are these publicly available?
Thank you, the variance is calculated independently based on demo game data, unfortunately this data is practically not available in the public domain. I wrote a bit about this here https://www.casinoshatewinners.com/p/what-casinos-hide-part-2-volatility. Finding out RTP is not much trouble.
Yes, I've read most of, if not all, of the free articles you have here. (Promise that I'm looking into signing up for your paid version, but I'm just a rookie at gambling.) I see that you mention somewhere that you got the licenses to set up your own casino just to run simulations? Is that how you were able to do the demo numbers?
FWIW, I'd love to see a breakdown of what a variance number of 18 or 169 really means. Is it just based on standard deviation?
Also, in my limited experience of online slots, I've always thought it made far more sense to stick with "No Rules" bonuses , with no playthrough and no max cashout. To me, these almost seem too good to be true, so I'd love to see an article with your take on them.
Hello, great article. I had also believed in the bonus myth you wrote about in the other article. However I am still not totally sure if I I understand why are these bonuses +ev. Is it that because most of the time we do not get to play through all the play requirements, we do not lose everything we should lose. So lets say 35x play through on 100 deposit + 100 bonus if we play always through on 98% RTP, we would lose 7000 x 0,02 = 140 but since most of the time we lose the 100 before we get to play through 7000, we lose less and than when we hit big, we just stop playing and cash out winnings, without actually playing through?
Is there some win limit when we should stop playing? Like lets say we will be up 200+ we would stop playing right? It would not make sense to play through if we are up more than deposit + bonus
Is there any program available, that we could run simulations?
Yes, that’s because of volatility. You either win big and clear the wagering requirements, or you lose quickly. The higher the volatility, the higher the bonus EV, and the wins become larger and much rarer.
You can’t stop playing until the wagering requirements are met, so in practice you have to play until you either clear the bonus or lose. That’s the whole point of wagering requirements.
There is a type of bonus where you play with your deposit first, and if you win, you can cancel the bonus and withdraw the winnings. That’s a very rare case, and I haven’t studied it in detail.
There is a program for this, and I’m working on making it public. Stay tuned for updates.
Glad you liked it. I got those numbers simply by using demo mode. It’s not hard to replicate if you know how to code, though I personally don’t.
The values like 18 or 169 refer to variance, which is the expected value of the squared deviation from the mean. In other words, it measures how much the outcomes can fluctuate.
In my volatility article, I used standard deviation instead — it’s easier to grasp. For example, in European roulette, if you bet on a single number, the variance is 34.08, and the standard deviation is about 5.84. That gives you a sense of how much swing to expect even in a simple game.
As for bonuses, the best ones are usually no-deposit offers or deposit bonuses that aren’t sticky. But really, you can play any bonus as long as the expected value is positive.
Thanks for taking the time to write this all out. I'm certainly not a mathematician but my "math & science high school" taught me enough to understand basic statistics.
I think I am finding out that once you start winning with these bonuses, they start disappearing. I was wondering how they were making money giving out 40%/50% and higher "no-rules" bonuses. Obviously no-deposit is pretty great but these are almost always limited to like $50 in winnings (not that I'm complaining).
Was really curious to find out that you have an expected EV for bonuses with such high playthrough requirements. I never would have thought that possible with numbers like 50x. Anyway, hope you keep writing, as I will be following!
It’s just classic marketing. First they give you a 100% bonus, then 50%, and before you know it you’re depositing without any bonus at all. For every player who clears bonuses with positive EV and walks away unless the terms are right, there are thousands who play just for fun.
Edward Thorp explained how to count cards decades ago, but most players still don’t know basic strategy.
This is great, thank you. Can you explain how you calculate the number you are using for variance? I.e. The Dog House (variance: 169), Starburst (variance: 18). Where do you collect these numbers from? Similarly, with RTP, can you share what your sources are? Are these publicly available?
Thank you, the variance is calculated independently based on demo game data, unfortunately this data is practically not available in the public domain. I wrote a bit about this here https://www.casinoshatewinners.com/p/what-casinos-hide-part-2-volatility. Finding out RTP is not much trouble.
Yes, I've read most of, if not all, of the free articles you have here. (Promise that I'm looking into signing up for your paid version, but I'm just a rookie at gambling.) I see that you mention somewhere that you got the licenses to set up your own casino just to run simulations? Is that how you were able to do the demo numbers?
FWIW, I'd love to see a breakdown of what a variance number of 18 or 169 really means. Is it just based on standard deviation?
Also, in my limited experience of online slots, I've always thought it made far more sense to stick with "No Rules" bonuses , with no playthrough and no max cashout. To me, these almost seem too good to be true, so I'd love to see an article with your take on them.
Thank you and keep on doing it!
Hello, great article. I had also believed in the bonus myth you wrote about in the other article. However I am still not totally sure if I I understand why are these bonuses +ev. Is it that because most of the time we do not get to play through all the play requirements, we do not lose everything we should lose. So lets say 35x play through on 100 deposit + 100 bonus if we play always through on 98% RTP, we would lose 7000 x 0,02 = 140 but since most of the time we lose the 100 before we get to play through 7000, we lose less and than when we hit big, we just stop playing and cash out winnings, without actually playing through?
Is there some win limit when we should stop playing? Like lets say we will be up 200+ we would stop playing right? It would not make sense to play through if we are up more than deposit + bonus
Is there any program available, that we could run simulations?
Hi, thanks for the feedback.
Yes, that’s because of volatility. You either win big and clear the wagering requirements, or you lose quickly. The higher the volatility, the higher the bonus EV, and the wins become larger and much rarer.
You can’t stop playing until the wagering requirements are met, so in practice you have to play until you either clear the bonus or lose. That’s the whole point of wagering requirements.
There is a type of bonus where you play with your deposit first, and if you win, you can cancel the bonus and withdraw the winnings. That’s a very rare case, and I haven’t studied it in detail.
There is a program for this, and I’m working on making it public. Stay tuned for updates.
Glad you liked it. I got those numbers simply by using demo mode. It’s not hard to replicate if you know how to code, though I personally don’t.
The values like 18 or 169 refer to variance, which is the expected value of the squared deviation from the mean. In other words, it measures how much the outcomes can fluctuate.
In my volatility article, I used standard deviation instead — it’s easier to grasp. For example, in European roulette, if you bet on a single number, the variance is 34.08, and the standard deviation is about 5.84. That gives you a sense of how much swing to expect even in a simple game.
As for bonuses, the best ones are usually no-deposit offers or deposit bonuses that aren’t sticky. But really, you can play any bonus as long as the expected value is positive.
Thanks for taking the time to write this all out. I'm certainly not a mathematician but my "math & science high school" taught me enough to understand basic statistics.
I think I am finding out that once you start winning with these bonuses, they start disappearing. I was wondering how they were making money giving out 40%/50% and higher "no-rules" bonuses. Obviously no-deposit is pretty great but these are almost always limited to like $50 in winnings (not that I'm complaining).
Was really curious to find out that you have an expected EV for bonuses with such high playthrough requirements. I never would have thought that possible with numbers like 50x. Anyway, hope you keep writing, as I will be following!
It’s just classic marketing. First they give you a 100% bonus, then 50%, and before you know it you’re depositing without any bonus at all. For every player who clears bonuses with positive EV and walks away unless the terms are right, there are thousands who play just for fun.
Edward Thorp explained how to count cards decades ago, but most players still don’t know basic strategy.
Appreciate the feedback!
“What an insightful perspective on this topic—it’s something I had no idea about!”
Glad you found it useful. Feel free to ask anything
Is max win the same as max payout when looking at welcome deposit bonuses?
No, they’re not the same.
“Max win” refers to the highest possible win built into the slot’s math model — for example, 5,000x your bet.
“Max payout” in a welcome bonus usually means the most you’re allowed to cash out after completing the wagering requirements.
Even if you hit a huge win in the game, the casino can cap your withdrawal according to the bonus terms.