How to Tell When a Jackpot Is About to Hit and What Trump Has to Do With It

Yes, most jackpots are random. But there are moments when the odds shift and here’s how you can spot them.

What gambler hasn’t dreamed of losing small and winning big, of playing hot slots while avoiding the cold ones, or of jumping into a jackpot just before it hits?

In this post we’ll break down jackpots and explore one key question: are there situations where you can confidently say a jackpot is about to hit

Reality check

For the overwhelming majority of slot machines, jackpots are triggered randomly and have nothing to do with timing. You simply cannot predict when one will hit.

To be clear, jackpots aren’t truly random in a strict mathematical sense. I explained this in my earlier post Are slots rigged? What matters is that the system behind the game is so complex and unpredictable that it works like randomness in practice.

And when I say jackpots don’t depend on time, I mean it doesn’t matter what time of day you’re playing — your chances stay the same. Some slot systems may technically factor in time somewhere in the code, but that doesn’t make evenings luckier than mornings.

When can you actually predict a jackpot?

In some rare cases, there are jackpots that must hit before a certain amount or time.

For example, slots from the provider Red Tiger often have daily jackpots that are guaranteed to drop before a specific time like 11 PM. If it’s already 10:59, you can safely assume the jackpot is seconds away.

In brick-and-mortar casinos, some progressive machines have a “must-hit-by” mechanic where the jackpot is guaranteed to trigger before it reaches a certain threshold. One example is Aristocrat’s Mystery Progressives. The closer the jackpot gets to the limit, the more profitable the game becomes.

Naturally, smart players took advantage of this. In his book Gambling 102: The Best Strategies for All Casino Games, Michael Shackleford called these players “slot vultures.” Some even had backers who funded them to occupy every qualifying machine until the jackpot dropped. Casinos didn’t lose money and no laws were broken, but the profits consistently went to the same people.

The same strategy exists online, only now you’re competing with players around the world. These jackpots can climb into the millions, and there’s no way to monopolize all the machines. You need a massive bankroll, a crew of players, and a bit of luck.

That didn’t stop me from trying.