How to Tell When a Jackpot Is About to Hit and What Trump Has to Do With It
Yes, most jackpots are random. But there are moments when the odds shift and here’s how you can spot them.
What gambler hasn’t dreamed of losing small and winning big, of playing hot slots while avoiding the cold ones, or of jumping into a jackpot just before it hits?
In this post we’ll break down jackpots and explore one key question: are there situations where you can confidently say a jackpot is about to hit
Reality check
For the overwhelming majority of slot machines, jackpots are triggered randomly and have nothing to do with timing. You simply cannot predict when one will hit.
To be clear, jackpots aren’t truly random in a strict mathematical sense. I explained this in my earlier post Are slots rigged? What matters is that the system behind the game is so complex and unpredictable that it works like randomness in practice.
And when I say jackpots don’t depend on time, I mean it doesn’t matter what time of day you’re playing — your chances stay the same. Some slot systems may technically factor in time somewhere in the code, but that doesn’t make evenings luckier than mornings.
When can you actually predict a jackpot?
In some rare cases, there are jackpots that must hit before a certain amount or time.
For example, slots from the provider Red Tiger often have daily jackpots that are guaranteed to drop before a specific time like 11 PM. If it’s already 10:59, you can safely assume the jackpot is seconds away.
In brick-and-mortar casinos, some progressive machines have a “must-hit-by” mechanic where the jackpot is guaranteed to trigger before it reaches a certain threshold. One example is Aristocrat’s Mystery Progressives. The closer the jackpot gets to the limit, the more profitable the game becomes.
Naturally, smart players took advantage of this. In his book Gambling 102: The Best Strategies for All Casino Games, Michael Shackleford called these players “slot vultures.” Some even had backers who funded them to occupy every qualifying machine until the jackpot dropped. Casinos didn’t lose money and no laws were broken, but the profits consistently went to the same people.
The same strategy exists online, only now you’re competing with players around the world. These jackpots can climb into the millions, and there’s no way to monopolize all the machines. You need a massive bankroll, a crew of players, and a bit of luck.
That didn’t stop me from trying.
Relax Gaming runs progressive jackpots that must drop before a certain amount. On May 8, 2025, I watched one climb to €2,985,300 with a hard cap at €3,000,000. It hit within the hour at €2,986,133. Another one on June 7, with a max at €2,000,000, triggered at €1,998,428.35.
Moments like these almost feel predictable. Sure, the odds are still random, but as the jackpot inches closer to the drop point, the probability tightens and players flood in. The game becomes legitimately hot.
I jumped in both times. Didn’t win, but losing with positive EV stings a lot less than losing at random.
Progressive jackpots
When it comes to standard progressive jackpots like NetEnt’s Mega Joker, Divine Fortune or Vegas Night Life, there’s no way to predict the exact moment the jackpot will trigger.
But what you can do is calculate the break-even point for players.
Once the jackpot reaches a certain amount, say €20,000 for Mega Joker, the game becomes theoretically break-even and with every spin the expected value starts climbing. One time I saw Mega Joker hit €78,000 and got lucky enough to win it. The RTP at that point was 111.2 percent. That’s a legitimately hot slot. That’s what a truly hot slot looks like.
At that point the usual vultures show up. They’ll keep spinning until the jackpot pops. So once the break-even threshold is passed, the jackpot is essentially on a timer.
I talk more about my own adventures feeding on meat hunted by others in my post How We Made Millions Playing Progressive Jackpot Slots. Part 1.
Here’s what it looks like in practice. Once the jackpot crosses that threshold the growth becomes wildly disproportionate thanks to advantage players piling in. Personally I like this kind of terminology.
And now you may be wondering what does Trump have to do with all this
If you stare at the graph long enough you’ll notice something oddly familiar. It looks a lot like his signature. Maybe he was secretly backing jackpot hunters and left an Easter egg in the graph. That theory actually came from the comments section on Quora under a post I wrote about it.
By the way I’m on Quora too if you want to follow along.
Conclusion
In 99 percent of cases you won’t be able to tell when a slot is going to drop a jackpot.
But when it comes to must-drop jackpots based on time or amount, you can say with high confidence that if there are just a few minutes or a few hundred euros left now is the moment.
As for regular progressive slots you can only track when they reach the break-even point. That’s when the hunters show up and the jackpot usually gets hit fast.
So yes. In rare cases you really can tell when a jackpot is about to drop.
Before You Go
If you found this interesting, feel free to leave a like or drop a comment. I read everything and try to reply when I can. And if you have a friend who might enjoy this, feel free to share it with them too.
Here are a few more pieces you might enjoy:
The House Doesn’t Always Win: How I’ve Been Beating Casinos Since 2016
Unlocking the True Value of Deposit Bonuses
Playing with an Edge in Casino Tournaments: $1,800,000 in 14 Months