Who Actually Makes Money on Prediction Markets

Most traders lose. A tiny few take almost everything. And on this market, you can actually see which camp you're walking into.

In the previous post, we established that prediction markets offer positive expected value — but only if you play correctly: be a maker, not a taker, and bet “no” on underdogs.

But that raises a harder question. Prediction markets, unlike equity markets that grow alongside the economy, are a pure zero-sum game. Every dollar won is a dollar lost by someon…